A week is certainly a long time in politics. When I was putting together this website, I could never have imagined what would have happened to the polls and the campaign in such a short space of time. I do not wish to make a party political point, but we can all agree that this election is now a lot more interesting than it was just a week ago.
I have to say my expectations of this campaign were that Labour would lose, we’d have a Conservative government and electoral reform would be off the agenda for the foreseeable future. Even if we do still have a Conservative government after the election, I think no government can ignore what has happened during this campaign.
Whether the polls stay as they are or the Liberal Democrat surge is just a bubble that will deflate before polling day, this last week has highlighted the extreme unfairness of the first past the post electoral system. Over the past few days, poll after poll has shown the three parties within a few percentage points of each other, but seat predictors show the third party still way behind in seats. The most shocking prediction is that Labour could come third in the popular vote and still have the most seats in parliament.
There’s still a long way to go until polling day and two more debates in that time, so who knows how this will all end on 6th May. If, however, we do end up with the Labour party polling less than 30 per cent and still first in terms of seats, the political class is in for a shock. The public won’t stand for it. Our tottering political system will have lost all remaining credibility and supporters of the status quo will be left defending the indefensible.
Politicians and the media like to say that the public aren’t interested in constitutional reform. That it’s just political geeks who get worked up about it. To a certain extent that’s true. However, it’s also true that the British people don’t like being told that they have no choice in politics, that their vote counts for nothing. They will not like it if they wake up on 7th May after having made their choice to find that their decision has been ignored. It will lead to a constitutional earthquake.
It has to be the case that electoral reform is on the agenda whoever wins the general election. The current system is bankrupt and this last week has revealed by just how much. If the Conservatives win the vote but not the parliament then how long before we see their MPs calling for change? How could Labour possibly stay in government if they poll third place? If millions more vote for the Liberal Democrats and find their votes have not translated into increased representation, won’t there be a revolution?
Probably not. Liberal Democrats are usually reasonable people who don’t go in for revolutions, but their anger will be immense. The whole system is discredited and if the people’s voices aren’t heard on May 6th, I’m sure they will shout even louder on May 7th.
